Supply
Root Cause & Dependencies
The mechanical driver of the memory squeeze: HBM's 3× wafer footprint reallocated from conventional DRAM, funded by hyperscaler AI capex.
Wafer Allocation · HBM vs Conventional DRAM
100% stacked share of DRAM wafer starts. 2026E–2027E forecast.
Hyperscaler Capex vs DRAM Price
Bars = combined AMZN/MSFT/GOOG/META capex ($B). Line = average DRAM contract index.
Wafer Flow (approx.)
Stacked bar substitute for a Sankey — share of wafer starts by end-market.
Concentration & Dependency Map
Netherlands
EUV Lithography
ASML
100% market share · €38.8B backlog · High-NA $370M+
Taiwan
Advanced Packaging (CoWoS)
TSMC
Capacity sold out through 2027 · 77% of TSMC Q2'26 rev from ≤7nm
South Korea / US
DRAM Oligopoly
Samsung / SK Hynix / Micron
>90% of DRAM revenue · SK Hynix HBM3e 56.4% share
Japan
Silicon Wafers
Shin-Etsu + SUMCO
~53% of global 300mm wafer supply
China
Rare-Earth Refining
China
~90% of downstream processing
Japan / Korea
Substrate & MLCC
Japan / Korea
MLCC lead times 8→20+ weeks; ABF substrate qualification gated