SiliconWatchTerminal

Overview

Global Semiconductor & PC Component Intelligence

Indexed contract pricing (Q1'24 = 100), hyperscaler AI capex, and reversal signals across the 2024–2028 horizon. Q3'26 refreshed to reported market data (Aug 2026): DRAM +13–18%, NAND +10–15% QoQ — deceleration, not decline.

DRAM285%
385idx
Base 100
Peak 449
NAND175%
275idx
Base 100
Peak 296
GDDR320%
420idx
Base 100
Peak 467
HBM220%
320idx
Base 100
Peak 335
GPU
$5,112
Base MSRP
Peak $5,112

Indexed Price Trajectory · Contract

All memory categories rebased to Q1'24 = 100. Dashed vertical marks today; forecast quarters carry lower confidence.

ActualForecast (past "Today" line)Contract price, base Q1'24 = 100
Source: TrendForce, DRAMeXchange (contract), SiliconWatch modelingUpdated 2026-08-31

Market Reversal Signals

Early warning indicators — DRAM/NAND cycle peak

  • Hyperscaler capex deceleration

    Not Triggered

    $725B combined 2026 guidance still tracking +77% YoY — no downward revisions.

  • HBM inventory build at Big-3 memory

    Watch

    SK Hynix HBM3e utilization > 95%; first inventory softness would flip contract negotiations.

  • New-fab qualified output (CXMT / TSMC AZ / Micron ID)

    Watch

    CXMT DDR5 ramp reported; qualification for tier-1 OEMs pending.

  • Spot-price rollover (chip_spot) for 60+ days

    Not Triggered

    DRAMeXchange spot still escalating +10–18% QoQ; sustained flat-to-negative = leading signal.

  • ASML backlog shortening / EUV lead time < 12 mo

    Not Triggered

    €38.8B backlog with capacity booked through 2027; High-NA still $370M+ with multi-quarter waits.