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Outlook

Forecast & Scenarios

DDR5 contract index projection. Confidence cone widens with horizon; scenario lines diverge past the Today boundary.

Fan Chart · DDR5 Contract Index Projection

Solid = actual. Shaded band = ±confidence spread. Dashed = base forecast. Bull/bear lines shown past the Today marker.

Source: SiliconWatch modeling on TrendForce contract dataUpdated 2026-08-31

Milestones · Fab, Policy, Product

  1. 2025-07-01China rare-earth export licensing regime
    policy

    Tightened processing controls (~90% share)

  2. 2025-09-01SK Hynix HBM3e 12-Hi qualification at NVIDIA
    SK Hynix
    product

    Locks in ~56% HBM share for CY26

  3. 2025-12-01ASML High-NA EUV first commercial shipment
    ASML
    product

    $370M+ per system; backlog €38.8B

  4. 2026-03-15Samsung P4 Pyeongtaek Phase 2 tape-out
    Samsung
    fab_ramp

    Additional DRAM wafer capacity

  5. 2026-04-01Japan METI additional rare-earth stockpile
    policy

    Response to China export controls

  6. 2026-06-25Micron FQ3 2026 earnings: $41.46B revenue
    Micron
    earnings

    84.9% gross margin; FQ4 guide $50B

  7. 2026-06-30TSMC CoWoS capacity doubling milestone
    TSMC
    fab_ramp

    Advanced packaging still sold out through 2027

  8. 2026-07-15TSMC raises wafer prices on 7nm and below
    TSMC
    policy

    Advanced-node wafer price increase feeds directly into GPU and accelerator kit costs from Q3 2026.

  9. 2026-08-01RTX 50 street prices jump up to 30% in South Korea
    NVIDIA
    product

    GDDR7 module cost (~$20/module) plus TSMC wafer hikes push RTX 5090 retail past $5,100 (~2.5x MSRP); mid-range cards also re-priced.

  10. 2026-08-01SK Hynix M15X HBM ramp complete
    SK Hynix
    fab_ramp
    Projected

    Doubles HBM output vs 2025 baseline

  11. 2026-09-01US CHIPS Act - Intel Arizona Fab 52 ramp
    Intel
    fab_ramp
    Projected

    18A node commercial output

  12. 2026-10-15NVIDIA Rubin (R100) launch
    NVIDIA
    product
    Projected

    HBM4 debut; higher per-GPU memory content

  13. 2026-11-15CXMT DDR5 mass production milestone
    CXMT
    fab_ramp
    Projected

    First non-Big-Three DDR5 at scale

  14. 2026-12-01AMD MI400 series launch
    AMD
    product
    Projected

    Competes for HBM4 allocation

  15. 2027-04-01EU Chips Act - TSMC Dresden fab first wafers
    TSMC
    fab_ramp
    Projected

    European supply diversification

  16. 2027-06-01Micron Idaho Fab 1 first output
    Micron
    fab_ramp
    Projected

    Adds ~10% to US DRAM capacity

  17. 2027-09-01Samsung Taylor TX fab commercial ramp
    Samsung
    fab_ramp
    Projected

    Foundry capacity in the US